A Too Early Look at the Top 10 NFL MVP Candidates and Their Rookie Card Prices

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are off to a hot start at 3–0. Murray has thrown for over 1,000 yards with 7 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns so far this season. The Cardinals have a tougher schedule coming up, facing the L.A. Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Cleveland Browns, but it will be a good test for the young Quarterback.

Murray’s cards are up 36.1% month over month and are up 43.28% over the past 3 months:

His pop 156 rookie Prizm Silver PSA 10 last sold for $2,600 on 9/24: 

While the card hit a record high of $4,950 last September, it is still up 41.8% since its off-season low of $1,833 in June. 

The Cardinals are in the toughest division in the NFL and have difficult upcoming match-ups, so Murray’s cards and MVP odds will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks. 

Patrick Mahomes has suffered his first-ever losses in September and the Chiefs are currently 1–2. The former MVP and Super Bowl Champion has thrown for 940 yards, 9 touchdowns to 3 interceptions so far this season. The Chiefs have a mixed bag of upcoming opponents, facing the Eagles, Bills, Washington Footbal Team, and Titans, but MVP odds are in favor of a Mahomes/Chiefs rebound. Mahomes has also set two records this season with the most passing yards and touchdowns through 50 starts (note: he is currently at 47 starts). 

Over the past month, Mahomes’ cards have grown 7.65% in value, and in the past 3 months, they’ve grown 18.5%:

His population 877 Prizm rookie PSA 10 last sold for $9,100 on 9/27: 

This card hit as high as $15,000 just before last year’s Super Bowl but is up 14% from an off-season low of $7,950. 

This might not be the ideal start for the Chiefs, but in 3 seasons as a starter, Mahomes has appeared in the AFC Championship and 2 Super Bowls, winning 1. It’s hard to bet against him as the season progresses. 

7 years ago, I drafted Tom Brady in a competitive fantasy football league and at the time thought it was a big risk given his age. Well, turns out that I (and many other people) were wrong about that. The 44-year-old has led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 2–1 start with nearly 1,100 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and a 109.3 passer rating. 

Brady is a 7x Super Bowl Champion, 3x MVP, 14x Pro Bowler and he has more he wants to prove. 

His cards have increased in value by 7.77% this past month, and 57.11% in the past 3 months: 

Brady’s population 1,088 Bowman Chrome PSA 10 rookie card is back up to $21,470 after a sale on 9/27:

This card peaked in value at $28,230 the day after Brady and the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. This card is up 62.6% from an off-season low sale of $13,200. 

Love him or hate him, Brady is the most accomplished quarterback of all time and hasn’t seemed to lose a step despite his age. The Buccaneers are favored to win the Super Bowl, slightly edging out the Kansas City Chiefs for the best odds so far this season. 

Over Matt Stafford’s 12-year NFL career, he hasn’t won a single playoff game across 3 playoff appearances. This isn’t a knock on Stafford, he was previously on a Detroit Lions team that has struggled over the years. He’s now on a Los Angeles Rams team that’s just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance and is currently 3–0. Stafford and the Rams toppled Brady and the Buccaneers in their last outing. 

Stafford has thrown 9 touchdown passes and currently has a 129.8 passer rating. The L.A. Rams are the 3rd favored team to win the Super Bowl behind the Buccaneers and Chiefs. 

Stafford’s cards have modestly increased this past month at 1.33% and 15.32% over the past 3 months: 

His population 61 2009 Topps Chrome Refractor rookie PSA 10 fell in value with a last sold price of $1,200 on 9/27:

The card had a record sale of $1,928.33 in March after his trade announcement but dropped 36.8% in value with the latest sale. 

Stafford is playing at an MVP pace on a Super Bowl-caliber team, but it’s still early in the season. He’s also 33-years-old, so his window for potential is smaller than some other young quarterbacks on this list. 

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have an easier division and currently sit at 2–1. Allen has thrown 7 passing touchdowns and has a 95.5 passer rating so far this season. Last season, the Bills reached the AFC Championship game but were edged out by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills currently have the fourth-best odds of winning a Super Bowl this season. 

Allen’s cards are up 2.61% in the past month, and 36.51% in the past 3 months: 

Allen’s population 26 Prizm Silver rookie PSA 10 last sold for $8,500 on 9/12, a drop of 30.4% from the previous sale: 

Allen’s rookie cards exploded in value last season and carried into the off-season with a record sale of his Prizm Silver PSA 10 for $15,500. This latest sale is the lowest record sale of this card since March of 2021.

Aaron Rodgers had a rough start to the 2021 season after a tenous off-season with his contemplation of retirement. However, the Packers are 2–1 and Rodgers is fresh off of a 37-second game-winning drive against the San Francisco 49ers. Rodgers is a 1x Super Bowl champion, 3x Super Bowl Champion and the Packers still have the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl this season. 

Rodger's cards are down 0.41% over the past month and 4.25% over the past 3 months: 

His population 236 2005 Topps Chrome rookie PSA 10 last sold for $3,052 on 8/24: 

The card had a previous high sale of $5,620 in January of this year and nearly reached it again in April. In July, this card hit a low of $2,655.74. Despite the rough start, it’s hard to imagine Rodgers not continuing in his groove and leading the Packers to another playoff appearance. 

Justin Herbert and the L.A. Chargers are off to a 2–1 start and defeated the Kansas City Chiefs last week 30–24. Herbert is just 23 years old and broke nearly every rookie QB passing record last season. He’s thrown for 6 touchdown passes with a 97.9 passer rating and the Chargers currently have the 9th best odds of winning the Super Bowl this season. 

Herbert’s cards are up 1.87% over the past month and 4.75% over the past 3 months: 

Herbert’s population 83 Silver Prizm rookie PSA 10 last sold for $3,802 on 9/27: 

This is up 50% from an off-season low of $2,514. 

Herbert’s rookie cards have slowly grown in value the past 3 months but haven’t seen the same increases in value as they did last season, perhaps due to excitement and hype from his rookie campaign wearing off a bit. 

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are off to a 2–1 start and have the 11th best odds of winning a Super Bowl this season. Prescott is coming off of a season-ending injury but has thrown 6 passing touchdowns with a 110.1 passer rating so far this season. 

His cards are up 0.91% this past month and 15.33% over the past 3 months:

Prescott’s Prizm Silver rookie PSA 10 last sold for $922.50 on 9/26, up 11.8% from its last prior sale: 

The Cowboys lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the season opener and have won just 4 playoff games in the past 25 years. Despite being outside of the top-10 Super Bowl odds so far this season, Prescott has plenty of receiving targets to throw at and the support of Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard in the run game.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are off to a 1–2 start and currently have the 13th best odds to win the Super Bowl this season. Wilson has thrown 7 passing touchdowns and has a 133.6 passer rating 3 games into the year. He’s an 8x Pro Bowler, he’s been in 2 Super Bowls (winning 1), and is one of just four quarterbacks with a passer rating over 100 so far in his career.

His cards are down 9.09% over the past month and are down 9.46% over the past 3 months: 

His pop 1,093 Topps Chrome rookie PSA 10 last sold for $506 on 9/27 down nearly 21% from the previous sale: 

Wilson is a talented, Super-Bowl-winning quarterback on a Seattle team that has struggled early in the season. It’ll be fun to see if Wilson can pull the team back up and gain momentum starting in week 4 against the 49ers. 

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are off to a 2–1 start and currently have the 8th best odds to win a Super Bowl this season. The Ravens defeated the Chiefs earlier this year and got their second win over the Detroit Lions with a record-setting field goal from Justin Tucker. Jackson won league MVP in 2019 and has thrown for 3 touchdowns with 2 rushing touchdowns so far this season. 

Jackson’s cards are down 1.29% this past month, but up 3.53% over the past three months:

His population 24 Prizm Silver PSA 10 last sold on 7/14 for $7,750, up 55% from its previous sale: 

Jackson is an electric quarterback with an MVP under his belt at just 24 years old. He’s led the Ravens to two playoff appearances, but both ended in losses. While there is a narrative that Jackson can’t win a playoff game, his performance on the field and his age refute that. The Ravens are capable of contending with the best teams in the NFL and his cards will be fun to watch throughout this season.