ONE37pm's 2022 Oscar Nominations: Predicting the "Big 8"

Beating out everyone else in the Oscar nomination game, The Power of the Dog has racked up 12 nominations in total—the most of any film this year, with Dune trailing closely behind with ten nominations. While the immediate thought for Best Adapted Screenplay might be Dune, the extremely well-known and popular science fiction novel by author Frank Herbert, The Power of the Dog should not be counted out of the running.

Although Dune might have the name recognition going for itself, The Power of the Dog is favored to pick up the Oscar for the writing side of things. 

Campion penned this screenplay based on the 1967 novel of the same name by Thomas Savage, a Western psychological drama. While The Lost Daughter also has some name recognition in its writer, actress Maggie Gyllenhaal, my gut tells me that the more understated, The Power of the Dog will win over the Academy with its overall complexity.

-Elizabeth Pagano

More often than not, the writing awards always seem to be the trickiest to predict, especially original screenplay. Everyone reacts to writing and film differently, and it's not as easy to predict how stories impact people individually.

Critics and audiences remain divided on Don't Look Up and Licorice Pizza, although the latter seems to be a betting favorite in this category. However, Kenneth Branagh's Belfast, the film based on the director's life growing up in the turbulent era of The Troubles in Northern Ireland, feels like it could pull out the win thanks to a split vote.

This isn't to say that Belfast isn't deserving of the win otherwise. Still, it will definitely benefit from The Academy being split amongst the other two favorites in the category.

-Conor Sheeran

While it's tough to tell if West Side Story will see the same success that it did at the Golden Globes, there's definitely a fair chance that it'll pick up an award for Ariana DeBose's performance as Anita. A lesser-known actress, DeBose was a standout in Spielberg's take on the film, playing Bernardo's girlfriend, who leans towards the more "American" way of life even though she's Puerto Rican.

DeBose is going up against Judi Dench for her performance in Belfast this time around, who hadn't been included in the lineup at Golden Globes. Though Dench is a major icon, the Academy might want to award the Oscar to someone a bit newer to the acting scene.

-Elizabeth Pagano

Kodi Smit-McPhee was one of the biggest reasons why The Power of the Dog cleaned up in nominations this year and, if not for Benedict Cumberbatch, would have been the best performance of this film.

Smit-McPhee's character Peter spends much of the film on the receiving end of emotional torment by Cumberbatch's Phil Burbank. Phil's cruelty causes Peter's mother, Rose (Kirsten Dunst), to lose herself and become an alcoholic, his villainous and downright evil ways being a focal point of the film.

Throughout the film, Peter is able to break down Phil in some ways, with Peter somewhat forcing Phil to confront his hidden homosexuality. Smit-McPhee crushes this role and is the heavy favorite in this category.

Despite some strong performances from the other nominees, most notably Ciarán Hinds and Troy Kotsur, McPhee seems to have this win in the bag.

-Conor Sheeran

While Nicole Kidman took home the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama just around a month ago, I have a good feeling that the Academy might just choose to follow down the path less trodden for Best Actress. Fans were bracing themselves for a snub early on February 8, though Kristen Stewart pulled through and was awarded her first-ever Oscar nomination for her role as Princess Diana in the historical-psychological drama, Spencer.

The mere fact that she wasn't left out is a great sign, and although the film itself wasn't thrown in the running for Best Picture, my feeling is that the Academy might give it to someone who we wouldn't expect—someone who has been a bit counted out over the span of her career.

Stewart has put on multiple incredible performances in her lifetime, yet her detailed portrayal of Princess Diana is her most incredible work so far, between her expert line delivery, likeness, and attention to the tiniest of details. You can tell that with every ounce of her being, she not only wanted to nail the role, but she wanted to do justice for Diana.

-Elizabeth Pagano

I'm almost hesitant to say that this award is a lock for Will Smith because I called Chadwick Boseman winning last year a guarantee, and we all know how that turned out.

That being said, the only other actor who has a real shot at winning over Will Smith is Benedict Cumberbatch. As I mentioned before, his performance in The Power of the Dog is the best of his career, but it just couldn't quite eclipse Smith's portrayal of Richard Williams in King Richard.

Smith plays Williams as a loving but strict father who is both equal parts motivating and incredibly frustrating. He wants the best for his daughters Venus and Serena, but how he does so leaves you scratching your head, which is reflected on screen by how the other characters interact with him.

As real-life tells us, Williams's methods pay off in the end as Venus and Serena have become two of the greatest athletes of all time. Smith's portrayal of Richard Williams is a fascinating character study of what it takes—and how far someone will go—to achieve greatness.

-Conor Sheeran

Jane Campion, the only woman in the Best Director category, has been nominated once before—in 1993 for the film, The Piano, for which she also wrote the screenplay (and won an Oscar). This nomination alone is history-breaking, as she's the only woman to receive two Best Director nominations. Campion is largely behind the extreme success that The Power of the Dog has received, given that she both wrote the adapted screenplay and directed it.

The Power of the Dog is definitely the favored bet in many categories, and given its sheer number of nominations, there's a better chance that Campion will be taking home the Oscar than one of her other fellow nominees.

Although West Side Story took home quite a few awards at the Golden Globes with Steven Spielberg as its director, it did not take home the award for this category—Campion did.

-Elizabeth Pagano

The biggest prize of the night will belong to The Power of the Dog. It is the most nominated film of the year, and it is the heavy favorite in a good amount of them, including two of the acting categories as well as Best Director.

It's admittedly a slow burn; the film is a fascinating look at the impact of toxic masculinity on not just the individual but also how that issue impacts those around that person. Cumberbatch's Phil Burbank is a monster, a true villain who uses violence and emotional cruelty to try and prove to everyone else that he is the toughest guy around.

Belfast gives The Power of the Dog its biggest competition, a film that is almost the polar opposite of it in terms of themes. While The Power of the Dog looks at the damage that an individual can cause to a community, Belfast examines just how much a community can mean to the individual.

Personally, I liked Belfast more than The Power of the Dog and believe that it is the Best Picture this year, but in terms of who will take home the award, The Power of the Dog is the likely winner.

-Conor Sheeran